Coronavirus Concerns? Consider Past Health Crises
Updated: Nov 22, 2020
During the last week of February 2020, the S&P 500 lost 11.49% — the worst week for stocks since the 2008 financial crisis — only to jump by 4.6% on the first Monday in March.(1) By all accounts, the drop was largely driven by ever-increasing fears about the potential effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and its ultimate impact on the global economy. Although many market observers contend that the market was overvalued and due for a correction anyway, the unpredictability, strength, and suddenness of the historic tumble was unnerving for even the most seasoned investors. In terms of putting recent volatility in perspective, it may be worthwhile for us to pause for a moment and use history as a guide.
A look back
Since the turn of the millennium, the market's negative response to health crises has been relatively short-lived. As this table shows, approximately six months after early reports of a major outbreak, the S&P 500 bounced back by an average of 10.47%. After 12 months, it rebounded by an average of 17.17%. Although there are no guarantees the current situation will follow a similar pattern, it may be reassuring to know that over even longer periods of time, stocks typically regain their upward trajectory, helping long-term investors who hold steady to recoup their temporary losses, catch their breath, and go on to pursue their goals.
Source: Dow Jones Market Data, as cited on foxbusiness.com, January 27, 2020. Returns shown do not reflect taxes, fees, brokerage commissions, or other expenses typically associated with investing. *End of month during which early incidents of outbreak were reported. **H1N1 occurred during the financial crisis, when, as during other periods, many different factors influenced stock market performance.
What should you do?
First, keep in mind that market downturns sometimes offer the chance to pick up potentially solid stocks at value prices, which could position a portfolio well for future growth. Again, there are no guarantees that stocks will perform to anyone's expectations — and decisions could result in losses including a possible loss in principal — but it may be helpful to remember that some investors use downturns as opportunities to buy stocks that were previously overvalued relative to their perceived earnings potential.
Second, but perhaps most important during trying times such as these, it may help to focus less on daily market swings and more on the fundamentals; that is, review your investment objectives and time horizon, and revisit your asset allocation to make sure it's still appropriate for your needs. Your allocation can shift in unexpected ways due to changes in market cycles, so you may discover the need to rebalance your allocation by selling holdings in one asset class and investing more in another.
After considering the points here, if you still have questions about how changing market dynamics are affecting your portfolio, please drop us a line. Often a third-party perspective can help alleviate any worries you may still hold, it's part of what we do at A. Duncan Investment Advisory. Talk to you soon.
Aaron Duncan Owner/Founder
A. Duncan Investment Advisory www.aduncanadvisor.com
(1) Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center, February 28, 2020, and March 2, 2020. Performance reflects price change, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Putting current market volatility into historical perspective can help you stay the course during turbulent times. Dollar-cost averaging does not ensure a profit or prevent a loss. Such plans involve continuous investments in securities regardless of fluctuating prices. You should consider your financial ability to continue making purchases during periods of low and high price levels. However, this can be an effective way for investors to accumulate shares to help meet long-term goals. Asset allocation is a method used to help manage investment risk; it does not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss.